The landscape of probability

We all know that the probability of some condition can lie anywhere between a sure thing (which we represent as a probability of 1) and a flat-out impossibility (0). But it turns out there are several other points of interest along the way. Let's take a tour.



When we say that something is a sure thing, we mean it is bound to be so. For example, the probability that a bachelor is unmarried is 1. This is a logical sure thing because, by the definition of 'bachelor', it couldn't be otherwise. (It could also be called an apodictic sure thing, however that's pretty much guaranteed to sound pretentious—but I'm getting ahead of myself.) Now consider the statement that an object with a positive electrical charge is attracted to an object with a negative electrical charge. This is a physical sure thing: though there may be a universe where this isn't true, it is true in ours.



Now let's move from sure things to things that are pretty much guaranteed. For example, it's pretty much guaranteed that the sun will rise tomorrow. Not a sure thing though: who knows what strange astronomical events might come to pass overnight? More about this in moment.



Nevertheless, most of the time, when we think about things that we consider likely, we're not thinking of things that are so overwhelmingly likely as the sun rising tomorrow. Likely things just have better than even odds.



Even odds (a probability of ½) is of course the sweet spot where the probability of some condition is exactly equal to the probability of its opposite. This can be interpreted as an expression of perfect uncertainty about the condition, and this was how Pierre-Simon Laplace used it in working out a solution to the Sunrise problem.



But as we continue our stroll, we find ourselves in the realm of unlikely things. Note that they don't have to be terribly unlikely. Something with a probability of 0.49 is (just slightly) unlikely, in that it has worse than even odds.



As the probabilities get thinner and thinner, we soon find ourselves encountering things that ain't gonna happen. These are the opposite of sure things. I'd love to win $50,000,000 in the lottery, but it ain't gonna happen. Well, of course it is gonna happen, but not to me (in all likelihood). Not that it's a physical impossiblity of course, much less a logical impossibility.



I'd just have to be awfully lucky.

Loughborough in Dubai

The following photos were taken in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Featured in the photos is an internationalized Loughborough Market T-shirt. The text printed on the T-shirt is 拉夫堡市场 which is Chinese for Loughborough Market.

A very big thank you to 刘家杰 for having these photos taken whilst on stopover in Dubai and for giving me permission to put them on my blog

① The Dubai Mall en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubai_Mall & www.thedubaimall.com

② Khalifa Tower - Burj Khalifa - ‎برج خليفة‎ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burj_Khalifa & www.burjkhalifa.ae

Sri Lanka

I notice that there are now a reasonable number of live idns using the Sri Lankan idn ccTLDs. Sri Lanka has ccTLDs in the Sinhala script (.ලංකා) and the Tamil script (.இலங்கை). The following is a random selection of some of the Sri Lankan ccTLD IDNs.

1. Department of Agriculture
   • Sinhala: වෙබ්.රජය.ලංකා
2. Lake House: Associated Newspapers of Ceylon
   • Sinhala: වෙබ්.ලේක්හවුස්.ලංකා
3. Millennium Information Technologies
   • Sinhala: වෙබ්.මිලේනියම්අයිටී.ලංකා
4. Parliament of Sri Lanka
• Sinhala: වෙබ්.පාර්ලිමේන්තුව.ලංකා
• Tamil: தளம்.பாராளுமன்றம்.இலங்கை

If the Sinhala and/or Tamil does not display correctly in your browser then it is highly likely that you do not have a Sinhala and/or Tamil font installed on your computer. The GNU FreeFont project has a free family of fonts that includes Sinhala and Tamil. You can download this free font family from www.ctan.org/tex-archive/fonts/gnu-freefont

British Universities on Sina

There are now quite a number of British Universities using China's Sina Wēibó 新浪微博. I applaud their enterprise and initiative.

1. Abertay University [@阿伯泰大学] weibo.com/abertayuni
2. Aberystwyth University [@亚伯大学] weibo.com/aberystwyth
3. Arts University Bournemouth [@伯恩茅斯艺术大学] weibo.com/aucb
4. Aston University [@阿斯顿大学Official] weibo.com/universityaston
5. Aston University Business School [@英国阿斯顿大学商学院] weibo.com/astonbusinessschool
6. Bangor University [@班戈大学Bangor] weibo.com/bangor1884
7. Bath Spa University [@英国巴斯斯巴大学] weibo.com/BathSpaUni
8. Birmingham City University 伯明翰城市大学 weibo.com/bcuchina
9. Cardiff University [@Cardiff-University] weibo.com/cardiffuni
10. City University London [@CityUniversityLondon] weibo.com/cityuniversitylondon
11. Coventry University 考文垂大学 weibo.com/coventryuniversity
12. Cranfield University [@英国克兰菲尔德大学] weibo.com/cranfielduni
13. De Montfort University [@德蒙福特大学] weibo.com/dmuchina
14. Durham University [@杜伦大学Durham_University] weibo.com/durhamuni
15. Edinburgh Napier University [@英国爱丁堡龙比亚大学] weibo.com/edinburghnapier
16. Glasgow Caledonian University [@格拉斯哥卡利多尼亚大学] weibo.com/caledonian
17. Imperial College London [@帝国理工学院官微] weibo.com/ImperialUK
18. Keele University [@英国基尔大学微博] weibo.com/keeleuni
19. King's College London [@伦敦国王学院时事] weibo.com/kingsevents
20. Kingston University London 金斯顿大学 weibo.com/kingstonlondon
21. Lancaster University 兰卡斯特大学 weibo.com/lancasteruni
22. Leeds Metropolitan University 利兹都会大学 weibo.com/leedsmetropolitan
23. London Metropolitan University 伦敦城市大学 weibo.com/londonmet
24. London South Bank University [@伦敦南岸大学] weibo.com/lsbubj
25. Middlesex University [@英国国立密德萨斯大学] weibo.com/middlesexuniversity
26. Northumbria University 诺森比亚大学 weibo.com/unnchina
27. Nottingham Trent University [@英国诺丁汉特伦特大学] weibo.com/ntuinternational
28. Queen Mary, University of London [@伦敦大学-玛丽女王学院] weibo.com/qmul
29. Robert Gordon University [@罗伯特戈顿大学] weibo.com/RobertGordonuni
30. Sheffield Hallam University 谢菲尔德哈勒姆大学 weibo.com/shuuk
31. SOAS, University of London [@SOAS_University_of_London] weibo.com/SOASLondon
32. St Maryʼs University, London [@英国伦敦圣玛丽大学] weibo.com/stmaryslondon
33. Swansea University [@斯旺西大学] weibo.com/swanseauni
34. Teesside University [@英国-提赛德大学] weibo.com/teessideuniversity
35. University of Bedfordshire [@英国贝德福特大学] weibo.com/bedschina
36. University of Bradford [@英国布拉德福德大学] weibo.com/universityofbradford
37. University of Bristol 布里斯托大学 weibo.com/bristol
38. University of Derby 德比大学 weibo.com/derbychina
39. University of East London [英国东伦敦大学UEL] weibo.com/uelchina
40. University of Essex 埃塞克斯大学官方微博 weibo.com/universityofessex
41. University of Exeter [@埃克塞特大学官博] weibo.com/exeteruni
42. University of Glasgow [@英国_格拉斯哥大学] weibo.com/glasgowuniversity
43. University of Hertfordshire [@英国赫特福德大学] weibo.com/uniofherts
44. University of Huddersfield [@哈德斯菲尔德大学] weibo.com/hudchina
45. University of Leicester 英国莱斯特大学 weibo.com/leicesteruniversity
46. University of Lincoln [@英国林肯大学ISC] weibo.com/lincolnisc
47. University of Liverpool [@英国利物浦大学] weibo.com/liverpooluniversity
48. University of Manchester [@曼彻斯特大学官方] weibo.com/uomofficial
49. University of Manchester Business School 英国曼彻斯特商学院 weibo.com/mbschinacentre
50. University of Northampton [@英国北安普顿大学] weibo.com/northampton
51. University of Nottingham [@英国诺丁汉大学官方微博] weibo.com/uoneao
52. University of Oxford [@牛津大学] weibo.com/OxfordUni
53. University of Reading [@英国-雷丁大学] weibo.com/readingchina
54. University of Salford [@英国索尔福德大学] weibo.com/salforduniversity
55. University of Sheffield [@谢菲尔德大学官方微博] weibo.com/sheffielduni
56. University of Sunderland 桑德兰大学 weibo.com/sunderlandchina
57. University of Surrey [@UniversityOfSurrey萨里大学] weibo.com/UniOfSurrey
58. University of Sussex [@英国萨塞克斯大学] weibo.com/sussexchina
59. University of Wales, Newport 威尔士新港大学 weibo.com/newport
60. University of West England [@英国西英格兰大学UWE] weibo.com/uwechina
61. University of West London [@英国西伦敦大学UWL] weibo.com/westlondonuniversity .
62. University of Westminster 威斯敏斯特大学 weibo.com/westminsterchina
63. University of Worcester [@英国伍斯特大学] weibo.com/uniofworcesteruk
64. York St John University [@约克圣约翰大学] weibo.com/yorksju

Loughborough in Europe

The following photos were taken in various parts of Europe, mainly Southern Europe. The person featured in the photos is 余意 (Yúyì). She is wearing one of the internationalized Loughborough Market T-shirts. The text printed on the T-shirt is 拉夫堡市场 which is Chinese for Loughborough Market.

A very big thank you to 余意 for having these photos taken whilst on holiday in Europe and for giving me permission to put them on my blog.

① 余意 in Athens, Greece.

② 余意 in Santorini, Greece.

③ 余意 in Venice, Italy.

④ 余意 in Zurich, Switzerland

IDN Whitelisting

When browsing using IDNs (Internationalized Domain Names) it is important that the Unicode form is displayed in the browser address bar and not the Punycode form. Only the Unicode form is human readable. Well it is if you know the language the IDN is written in. Lets take the Korean web address 송파구청.한국 by way of example.

• 송파구청.한국 is the Unicode form
• xn--2e0b569ap6hmmg.xn--3e0b707e is the Punycode form

You can convert between Unicode and Punycode forms using Verisign's online IDN Conversion Tool.

Unfortunately browsers do not always display the Unicode form but instead display the Punycode form in the address bar. Personally I consider that all browsers should always display the Unicode form. By displaying the Punycode form the browsers are impeding internationalization of the internet. The reason they give for displaying the Punycode form is for "Security". I am not convinced it is necessary because Registries take their own security measures to ensure registration of legitimate IDNs.

Ensuring display of  the Unicode form of IDNs is achieved by whitelisting. Different browsers have different whitelisting strategies and different methods for whitelisting.  My setup is MacOSX 10.6.8 using the English OSX and English versions of the browsers.

Firefox (v5.0.1)

Firefox whitelists by TLD (Top Level Domain). If a TLD is whitelisted the Unicode form will be displayed in the address bar☺. If a TLD is not whitelisted the Punycode form will be displayed in the address bar☹. There are many TLDs that are not whitelisted by default in Firefox.

One can view which TLDs are whitelisted in firefox:

• Open a Firefox window & type about:config in the address bar
• Click the I'll be careful, I promise button
• Type network.IDN.whitelist into the filter box

You will now see a list of whitelisted TLDs. They are of the form network.IDN.whitelist.TLD. Note that some TLDs begin xn--. These are the Punycode forms of IDN TLDs.

Lets take the Korean IDN 송파구청.한국 as an example. 한국 means Korea and is a recently introduced IDN TLD and as such is not whitelisted by default. It is the Punycode and not the Unicode form that needs to be whitelisted in Firefox. The Punycode form of 한국 is xn--3e0b707e. Assuming you are still in the Firefox config window then in order to whitelist 한국:

• right click mouse
• select New  ▶  Boolean
• Enter the preference name network.IDN.whitelist.xn--3e0b707e
• set Boolean value to true and OK

Korean IDNs with the TLD 한국 will now display in Unicode form ie in Korean as one would naturally expect.

Google Chrome (v12.0.742.122)

Chrome will display the Unicode form for, as Google puts it, "those languages that the user claims to understand" otherwise the Punycode form will be displayed. As usual, for display, Unicode good Punycode bad.

I will again use 송파구청.한국 to illustrate. If you have a basic unconfigured English version of Chrome then, in the address bar, you will see xn--9d0br8l80kv9k92a984a.xn--3e0b707e displayed instead of 송파구청.한국 So we need to configure Chrome to display the Unicode form for Korean IDNs:

• go to Chrome Preferences
• click Under the Hood
• click Languages and Spell-checker Settings...
• in the Languages column click Add
• select Korean - 한국어 and OK that

Korean IDNs will now display correctly. Repeat for all other languages for which you want correct display of IDNs. For more detailed information see the IDN in Google Chrome article.

Safari (v5.1)

Safari whitelists IDNs by Script (as in the script used to write a language). Any IDN that is written in a whitelisted Script will be displayed in the address bar in Unicode form☺. Any IDN that is written in a Script that is not whitelisted will be displayed in Punycode form☹.

The whitelisted Scripts are in a text file entitled IDNScriptWhiteList.txt The pathname to this file is:

• /System/Library/Frameworks/WebKit.framework/Versions/Current/Resources

The default whitelisted Scripts are: Arabic, Armenian, Bopomofo, Canadian_Aboriginal, Devanagari, Deseret, Gujarati, Gurmukhi, Hangul, Han, Hebrew, Hiragana, Katakana_Or_Hiragana, Katakana, Latin, Tamil, Thai, Yi

If you want to whitelist other Scripts, such as, Cyrillic or Greek then you need to add the Script names to this file. You will require root privileges to edit this file.

Of all the browser whitelisting methods I have looked at I consider this the most rational but also, for the average user, the most difficult to configure. Apple should implement a simple user accessible method for whitelisting Scripts.

Loughborough Market T-shirts

On Saturday 23rd July Gordon Gekko, Jonny (刘家杰) and myself gave free T-shirts to Loughborough Market Stallholders. These T-shirts have Loughborough Market printed on them, not in English but in Chinese or Japanese. This endeavour is part of an initiative to internationalise Loughborough and make the World aware of Loughborough.

In the photo below Gordon Gekko, who is on the left, is wearing the Chinese T-shirt and Jonny is wearing the Japanese T-shirt. The text printed on the T-shirts is:

• 拉夫堡市场 which is Simplified Chinese for Loughborough Market
• ラフバラ市場 which is Japanese for Loughborough Market

Loughborough Market is on Thursdays and Saturdays so if you visit the market on a warm sunny day you may well see stallholders wearing these T-shirts.

Note: It may interest you to know that Gordon has the adopted Chinese name 恺心 (Kǎixīn).